Identifying growth drivers for a $152.8 billion market

Metal packaging by sector, $ million, current prices & exchange rates to 2022; constant 2022 prices & exchange rates, 2024 share by type. Image: Smithers
The latest exclusive data from Smithers shows that in 2024, the global market for metal packaging (steel and aluminium cans, aerosols, caps & closures, and industrial transit formats) will reach $152.8 billion. Market forecasting, available in The Future of Metal Packaging and Coatings to 2029 report, tracks how this market will increase, with a +3.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) pushing value to $177.4 billion in 2029. This expansion is contingent on several factors, including:
Legislative developments
Worldwide cans for sale to consumers account for nearly 60% of the contemporary market, by value. Total world consumption of all can formats, including aerosols is set to increase from 592.6 billion units to 725.1 billion across 2024-2029. Central to the competitiveness of these is their durability and increasingly their sustainability relative to other formats, especially plastics.
Multiple initiatives are targeting single-use plastic beverage bottles. Mandatory requirements for minimum recycled content in these plastics will enter into force next year in Europe, followed by a major expansion, once the recently agreed Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation(PPWR) enters into force. This will also set new collection targets across EU member states for both steel and metal packaging.
Moving to metal cans is one way to avoid minimum recycled content rules, and paying the price premium for food-grade recycled PET. Furthermore the change can be presented as a demonstrable commitment of a company’s broader commitment to the environment. Brands are experimenting to test consumer acceptance and the cost implications of moving beverages, like water, from plastic into metal cans. In parallel there is renewed interest in single-use metal bottle, with trials of new formats for drinks and personal care goods; and diversification into re-use cups at venues such as sports stadiums.
Customer convenience
The potential of replacing plastic has stimulated development in can fixtures, especially toward resealable can ends that replicate the convenience of screw-top plastic bottles in segments such as energy drinks and water. Smithers estimates that in 2023, around one billion resealable ends were filled using the cap can and BRE end from Ball, and the XO Solution end from XO GmbH. Both these however mix polymer components with the metal can end, which slows production speeds.
This has strengthened the impetus to develop an all-metal resealable end that can run on modern high-throughput canning lines. Smithers research has identified several promising concepts that are poised for their first market trials in 2024.
Florida’s Cannovation has a design for a metal ring seamed to the top of the beverage can that has a re-closeable top panel.
MC Product Design, based in the Netherlands, has developed a two-part re-closing end with a button release and a countersink design which enables rotation.
Another option is screw-top aluminium bottles, with new high-capacity lines for these opening in both the US and Japan. Metal bottles are produced using two techniques. The first is impact extrusion which uses the same lines as aluminium aerosol manufacturing. The second is based on familiar drawn wall ironed (DWI) beverage can lines. These can run at five to fifteen times the output of impact extrusion, with bottles that can be up to 50% lighter.
Bottled water is again a major opportunity. This potential has been demonstrated, for example, by French brand, Drink Waters, that now sells mineral water in 330ml, 473ml, and 500ml Alumi-Tek bottles made by Ball.
Design innovation
In the short term, elevated energy costs, supply chains disruptions and high prices for aluminium and steel make a transition from plastic to metal less attractive. Although recovery rates for beverage cans in Europe will climb in the medium-term, as the PPWR will mandate all member states to run their own deposit recovery schemes (DRSs) for these formats beginning in 2029.
In this environment, the impetus to further lightweight design where possible continues, with innovations focussed on can ends.
Can makers are continuing to make the transition from heavier 0.22mm gauge ends to 0.208mm gauge, and Smithers estimates almost 70% of all beverage cans used such lighter weight ends last year.
Toyo Seikan recently introduced a Compression Bottom Reform (CBR) process for drinks cans. By strengthening the can’s bottom a lighter weight body can be used. Developed at its plant at Chitose in Japan, this reduces the aluminium used to make a standard 330ml or 350ml cab by 1.2 grams and shaves the weight of a 500ml container by 2 grams.
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The projected growth of the metal packaging market is exciting! Innovations in sustainability and convenience, like resealable cans and lighter designs, highlight the industry’s adaptability. As brands shift from plastic, we’ll likely see significant environmental benefits and consumer acceptance. Thanks for sharing.