As we now live in an AI-dominated world, I asked Microsoft Co-Pilot what the aerosol package will be like in 20 years. This was the answer:

“In 20 years, aerosol packaging is likely to be radically transformed by advances in sustainable materials, smart technologies and user-centric design. We may see containers crafted from fully biodegradable or recyclable materials, reducing environmental impact while maintaining durability and safety. Additionally, integrated smart features, such as usage indicators and interactive labels, could offer enhanced convenience and information to consumers. Designs are expected to be more ergonomic and customisable, catering to a diverse range of needs and preferences. Overall, the future aerosol package will balance eco-friendliness, functionality and innovation in ways that reflect changing consumer values and technological possibilities.”

Are we on the cusp of radical aerosol innovation?

I’m not sure there is anything here that would surprise anyone. The big question for me is how the aerosol package might develop to integrate these ideas. The current aerosol can and valve have been optimised to a point where there is probably not much that can be done without a radical change. Cans have been lightweighted; they contain more recycled content, and steel and aluminium have excellent recycling credentials. The valve has a single moving part and has undergone evolutionary change since its development to keep up with changes in formulation and increases in manufacturing line speed.

Usage indicators have been used by aerosols in the pharmaceutical sector for some time, with good reason. If you are asthmatic, knowing how many doses of medication you have left is (potentially) a matter of life and death. I’m not sure the same is true for a hairspray or a deodorant.

However, with the growth of subscription models for FMCG products, wouldn’t having something that tells the manufacturer when a product needs to be replaced be useful, rather than relying on estimates of typical use, as is often the norm today?

Sounds like a definite ‘yes.’ But if you have a captive audience who are automatically sent a new product when the old one runs low, how do you grow your customer base? How do you innovate? How can marketers develop a brand into new sectors? How do you improve sustainability without drastically changing the product the consumer is expecting?

From a manufacturer’s perspective, being able to plan production, understand your consumer base and predict unit sales would be incredibly useful for efficiency. But if your ambition is to create year-on-year growth for your brand, a subscription model is probably the least effective way to achieve this.

McKinsey estimates that 25 per cent of total revenue and profits come from products launched in the last three years. Image: JackF-stock.adobe.com

The bottom line behind innovation

McKinsey estimates that 25 per cent of total revenue and profits come from products launched in the last three years, and for companies that lead on innovation, this can be as high as 33 per cent. FMCG brand owners make huge investments in market research and R&D to identify new consumer needs, sometimes even creating them. Perhaps having more customisable products would help prevent stagnation under a fixed subscription system. Although it’s worth asking just how much customisation you need with an aerosol dispenser. That said, the “Share a Coke” campaign increased Coca-Cola’s sales in a declining US market. It encouraged ten million teens to try Coca-Cola, and sales of the participating package grew by 11 per cent.

I can imagine there being a demand for certain brands of body spray with individual names on the can, even if this is just for Christmas gift packs. The Christmas gift pack could be something peculiar to the UK, or do grandparents in, say, France or Portugal give their grandchildren a box of “smellies” (as my Mum calls them) every festive season?

Consistency and innovation: striking a balance

But product innovation, in and of itself, is not a guarantee that a brand will grow. Marketers must tread a fine line between continuing to provide a product that existing consumers know and trust and developing something new to help extend its appeal beyond the existing base. Going back to Coca-Cola, New Coke is an excellent example of this.

I, myself, was involved in the “relaunch” of what is now considered an iconic hairspray many years ago. A new brand owner took the product out of its traditional blue three-piece tinplate can, fitted with a blue cap, and repacked it into a sleek, one-piece pink-and-silver aluminium container with a pink actuator. Sales plummeted as the traditional consumer base didn’t recognise the product on the shelf. The product was returned to its original packaging within six months, and it remains in that packaging to this day. I suspect many of CanTech’s readers will know of similar examples.

So, has Co-Pilot helped me understand how the aerosol package needs to be developed to ensure it remains on the market in 20 years’ time? No, not really. But isn’t that the case with much of the rhetoric about AI now? This certainly isn’t the sort of artificial intelligence systems Star Trek promised us, at least not at this stage.